AMEREN CORP (AEE) Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q3 2025 adjusted diluted EPS was $2.17, up 16% year over year (GAAP EPS $2.35 includes a $0.18 tax benefit) driven by new Ameren Missouri electric rates, warmer July weather, and infrastructure investments; partially offset by higher O&M and interest expense .
Management raised 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.90–$5.10 and GAAP EPS to $5.08–$5.28; established 2026 diluted EPS guidance at $5.25–$5.45, underpinned by expected rate base growth and sales momentum .
Q3 beat Street: adjusted EPS $2.17 vs SPGI consensus ~$2.11*; revenue beat as well (SPGI actual ~$2.60B* vs consensus ~$2.52B*) while company-reported operating revenues were $2.699B [GetEstimates]* .
Strategic catalysts: expanded data center construction agreements to ~3 GW (non-refundable $38M collected), progress on Missouri large-load tariff, and visible financing plan (ATM forwards and bonds); near-term regulatory decisions in Illinois on gas rates and MYRP reconciliation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“Third quarter adjusted earnings reflected increased infrastructure investments, new Ameren Missouri electric service rates… and higher Ameren Missouri retail sales, primarily driven by warmer July weather” .
Data center pipeline strengthened: “executed construction agreements… expanded to 3 GW… developers… have now made non-refundable payments totaling $38 million” .
Leadership and financing clarity: updated multi-year growth plan near upper end of 6–8% EPS CAGR and equity needs for 2025–2026 fulfilled through forward sale agreements .

What Went Wrong

Higher O&M (energy center and tree trimming) and interest expense pressured earnings in Missouri and at Parent; Q3 EPS drivers include $(0.06) O&M and $(0.04) interest headwinds at Ameren Missouri .
Ameren Illinois Natural Gas posted a loss of $13M in Q3 (vs. $10M loss last year), with pending ICC decision not yet final; ALJ recommendation below Ameren’s request .
Weighted-average shares higher, reducing EPS by roughly $(0.03) on Q3 drivers and expected further dilution upon settlement of ATM forwards (~5.8M shares by YE25) .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Total Operating Revenues ($USD Millions)	$2,173	$2,221	$2,699
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$1.70	$1.01	$2.35
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	$1.87	$1.01	$2.17
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$586	$411	$825
Operating Margin (%)	27.0% (586/2,173)	18.5% (411/2,221)	30.6% (825/2,699)
Net Income to Common ($USD Millions)	$456	$275	$640

Q3 2025 vs SPGI consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	# of Estimates
Adjusted EPS ($)	2.106*	2.17*	12*
Revenue ($USD)	2,519.6M*	2,600.0M*	5*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global. Note: Ameren reported Q3 total operating revenues of $2,699M; SPGI “Revenue” basis differs from reported “Operating Revenues” .

Segment earnings (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment	Q3 2024 GAAP ($MM)	Q3 2024 Adj ($MM)	Q3 2025 GAAP ($MM)	Q3 2025 Adj ($MM)
Ameren Missouri	$381	$415	$518	N/A (drivers disclosed)
Ameren Transmission	$90	$100	$151	$103
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution	$56	N/A	$57	N/A
Ameren Illinois Natural Gas	$(10)	N/A	$(13)	N/A
Ameren Parent	$(61)	N/A	$(73)	N/A

KPIs (volumes and revenue mix)

KPI	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Ameren Missouri retail load (kWh, MM)	8,497	8,982
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution total (kWh, MM)	9,320	9,446
Ameren Missouri off-system sales (kWh, MM)	748	581
Ameren Missouri electric revenues ($MM)	$1,324	$1,685
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution revenues ($MM)	$552	$699
Ameren Transmission revenues ($MM)	$210	$240
Natural gas revenues total ($MM)	$138	$136

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$4.85–$5.05	$4.90–$5.10	Raised
GAAP EPS	FY 2025	$4.85–$5.05	$5.08–$5.28	Raised
Diluted EPS	FY 2026	N/A	$5.25–$5.45	Established
Dividend per share (quarterly)	Q4 2025	$0.71 (recent declarations)	$0.71 (Dec. 31 payment)	Maintained
Long-term EPS CAGR	2025–2029	6–8% (base $4.95)	Reaffirmed focus near upper end	Maintained
Planned generation portfolio	2027–2029 in-service milestones	Pipeline under PRP	~2.7 GW in progress; $1.5B tax credits through 2029	Expanded detail

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
Data center load growth & ESAs	Q2: ~2.3 GW construction agreements; ramps late-2026+; $28M collected; negotiating ESAs aligned with large-load tariff	Expanded to ~3 GW; non-refundable $38M collected; ramps expected 2027; additional ~2 GW in advanced discussion (MO)	Strengthening pipeline and monetization
Missouri large-load rate structure	Q2: Filed proposed structure (≈$0.06/kWh; 15-year term; min demand 70%)	Updated surrebuttal; 12-year service after ramp; 80% min demand; decision expected by Feb 2026	Advancing toward approval
Generation plan and procurement	Q2: CCNs for Big Hollow (800 MW CT + 400 MW BESS); combined cycle targeting 2031; securing long lead items	~2.7 GW in progress; CCNs requested for Reform Solar (250 MW) adjacent to Callaway; long lead components secured	Execution progressing
Financing & balance sheet	Q2: ~$600M/year equity through 2029; 2025–2026 largely prepaid through forwards; ratings affirmed	Increased ATM capacity by ~$1.25B; 2025 debt issuance completed; operating above Moody’s downgrade threshold	Capacity to fund growth sustained
Illinois regulatory & energy bill	Q2: MYRP reconciliation (staff $49M vs request $60M); Gas rate review (staff $103M vs request $135M)	ALJ recommends $91M gas increase (ROE 9.93%; 50% equity); energy bill: IRP at ICC, storage procurement, energy efficiency spend ↑ to ~$250M/year, with incentives potential	Constructive but mixed outcomes

Management Commentary

“We’re investing… to harden [the grid] and make it more reliable, resilient, and safer… adding new energy generation resources… and optimizing our operations to keep customer rates affordable” — Marty Lyons (CEO) .
“Q3 adjusted earnings were $2.17 per share… the $0.18 per share tax benefit was excluded from adjusted earnings” — Marty Lyons (CEO) .
“We expect 2026 diluted EPS to be $5.25–$5.45… and consistent earnings growth near the upper end of our 6–8% EPS CAGR in 2027–2029” — Marty Lyons (CEO) .
“The Midcontinent ISO LRTP opportunities remain significant… we will bid where we have a clear advantage” — Marty Lyons (CEO) .
“ALJ recommends $91M… in Ameren Illinois gas rate review (ROE 9.93%; 50% equity)… MYRP reconciliation decision in mid-December” — Michael Moehn (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

Data center expansion and generation adequacy: Management believes current plans can serve ≥2 GW by 2032; ESAs will solidify ramp rates; next IRP in fall 2026 for potential updates .
EPS growth range: Team targets upper half of 6–8% longer-term, with upside pending tariff and ESA execution; 2025 and 2026 imply ~8% growth off base .
Balance sheet and equity: Operating comfortably above Moody’s downgrade threshold; equity needs for 2025–2026 prepaid; exploring future ATM capacity .
Illinois omnibus energy bill: Neutral stance; highlights IRP at ICC, storage procurement, and materially higher energy efficiency spend with potential incentives .
Capital pipeline: 10-year investment pipeline increased by ~$5B, driven by generation, grid modernization, and technology systems; timing details to come in February .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 adjusted EPS: $2.17 vs SPGI consensus $2.106 (12 estimates); beat by ~$3%* [GetEstimates]*.
Q3 2025 revenue: SPGI “Revenue” actual ~$$2.60B vs consensus ~$2.52B (5 estimates); beat by ~$3%; Company-reported total operating revenues were $2.699B, reflecting classification differences [GetEstimates] .
Implication: Street likely revises FY25/FY26 upward within raised ranges; EPS drivers (MO rates, sales growth, and transmission rate base) support trajectory while O&M/interest partially offset .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q3 delivered a clean beat on adjusted EPS and revenue, with core drivers (MO rates, volume/weather) and recurring investment-led growth offsetting controllable O&M and higher interest costs .
Guidance reset higher for FY25 and introduced FY26 at ~$5.35 midpoint; management messaging consistent with upper-half EPS CAGR target (6–8%) through 2029 .
Data center momentum is visibly accelerating (3 GW construction agreements; $38M collected) with ESAs pending and Missouri tariff decision expected by Feb 2026—key multi-year demand catalyst .
Financing is proactive (forwards, ATM, bonds), and balance sheet headroom preserved; expect continued ~$600M/year equity over plan to sustain capex, with ratings stable .
Regulatory cadence: IL gas ALJ recommendation points to constructive, if moderated, outcomes; MYRP reconciliation and Missouri tariff decision are upcoming catalysts that can firm load and investment path .
Near-term watch items: Q4 O&M and lower MEEIA incentive temper seasonality; dilution from ATM settlement (~5.8M shares) should be modeled .
Medium-term thesis: Transmission rate base growth, MO PRP execution (gas + storage + solar), and data center-led sales uplift support durable earnings and dividend growth in line with EPS CAGR .